Methodology

At Prophit Sports Betting, our approach is rooted in data-driven analysis and strategic bankroll management. 

The following outlines the key components of our methodology:

Predictive Model

We employ a sophisticated predictive model to calculate the point spread for each game. This model integrates various data inputs, including:

• Power Ratings: These ratings are tailored to reflect the true strength of each team, considering factors like recent performance, home/away dynamics, and player efficiency.

• Roster & Coaching Updates: We adjust our power ratings and model outputs based on real-time changes, such as player injuries, suspensions, transfers, and coaching strategies.

• Market Trends & Analysis: We analyze betting market movements to identify shifts in public sentiment and to anticipate how these trends might impact the final outcome.

The models output a calculated point spread that represents our estimate of the true line for the game.

Edge Calculation

Once the point spread is calculated, we compare it to the bookmaker's offered spread. The difference between our calculated spread and the bookmaker's spread represents our edge. A positive edge indicates that the bookmaker's line is favorable to the bettor, providing a profitable opportunity. A bet is only deemed valuable if it exceeds the edge threshold.

Bankroll Management

To capitalize on the identified edge, we apply the 0.25 Kelly Criterion (Quarter Kelly) for optimal bet sizing. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that determines the ideal percentage of our bankroll to wager based on the size of our edge and the odds offered. The Quarter Kelly approach is a conservative variation that balances potential gains with risk management, reducing the likelihood of significant drawdowns while ensuring steady bankroll growth. 1 unit is equivalent to 3.3% of your bankroll and unit sizes range from 0.5 to 3 units.

Execution and Monitoring

We continuously monitor our bets, updating our model as new data becomes available. This dynamic approach allows us to refine our strategies, adapt to market conditions, and maintain a disciplined, systematic betting process. By combining our predictive model with the 0.25 Kelly Criterion, we aim to consistently identify profitable betting opportunities and maximize long-term returns.